OTAN-Russie

Wikileaks vient ce mardi de mettre en évidence par tweet, un câble diplomatique de 2008, concernant les préoccupations de la Russie, et les conséquences d’une éventuelle adhésion de l’Ukraine (et de la Géorgie) à l’OTAN. Le câble est sans appel et démontre une nouvelle fois ce que OpeNews ne cesse d’affirmer (une évidence pour nombres de personnes déconnectées des médias de masse) : la crise en Ukraine (comme celle de Géorgie à l’époque) est une attaque frontale des Etats-Unis contre la Russie.

En résumé le câble daté du 1er février 2008 (soit six mois avant la « guerre éclaire » qui verra les États abkhaze et sud-ossète devenir indépendants de la Géorgie), de l’Ambassadeur en Russie William J. Burns expose les points de vue et avertissement de la Russie :

– L’adhésion à l’OTAN de l’Ukraine menace directement l’économie, l’industrie, et la sécurité de la Russie

– Cette adhésion à l’OTAN est une prolongation de la Guerre Froide

– Amènera à des divergences profondes en Ukraine (/Géorgie) pouvant mener à une guerre civile

– La Russie se verra contrainte d’intervenir pour sauvegarder ses intérêts

 

Morceaux choisis :

Following a muted first reaction to Ukraine’s intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains « an emotional and neuralgic » issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership would have a major impact on Russia’s defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability and « provocative acts » in the separatist regions.

 

Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat

 

Lavrov emphasized that Russia was convinced that enlargement was not based on security reasons, but was a legacy of the Cold War

 

there was a growing tendency for new members to do and say whatever they wanted simply because they were under the NATO umbrella (e.g. attempts of some new member countries to « rewrite history and glorify fascists »)

 

FA said « a radical new expansion of NATO may bring about a serious political-military shift that will inevitably affect the security interests of Russia

 

Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

 

Ukraine was, in the long-term, the most potentially destabilizing factor in U.S.-Russian relations

 

Trenin expressed concern that elements within the Russian establishment would be encouraged to meddle, stimulating U.S. overt encouragement of opposing political forces, andleaving the U.S. and Russia in a classic confrontational posture

 

The GOR has made it clear that it would have to « seriously review » its entire relationship with Ukraine and Georgia in the event of NATO inviting them to join. This could include major impacts on energy, economic, and political-military engagement, with possible repercussions throughout the region and into Central and Western Europe. Russia would also likely revisit its own relationship with the Alliance and activities in the NATO-Russia Council, and consider further actions in the arms control arena, including the possibility of complete withdrawal from the CFE and INF Treaties, and more direct threats against U.S. missile defense plans

 

 Pour consulter les twetts

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/06/us-ukraine-russia-glazyev-idUSBREA150X720140206 

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html#efmAB5ACs 

265 RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES – #2008 https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html#efmAB5ACsAC7ADJCwaCx7C0AC1RC4rC70C73C_

NDBKDCBDEWDG7DRzDT1DW0DaSDcEDegDgTDjeDrYDt4Dt7DwiDx0D1VD42D6aEEDEFEEjkEj2Em-EppE_pE_6 

 

Source : http://openews.eu/quand-un-cable-diplomatique-de-2008-annoncait-les-consequences-dune-eventuelle-adhesion-de-lukraine-a-lotan/

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